When Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party
declared that it had divorced Mahagathbandhan, many got confused over the
reasons. Some people thought that differences over seat sharing formula could
be the prime reason behind the divorce. While some people were of the view that
Mulayam Singh Yadav perhaps wanted Narendra Modi's support for UP till assembly
elections scheduled in 2017. This speculation surfaced after a meeting between
Mulayam Singh Yadav and BJP President Amit Shah.
Some
political experts were surprised that despite being the chief of the united
Janata Parivar and a proposal that the united Parivar will contest elections on
SP symbol (which SP itself declined), Mulayam Singh took such an extreme step?
Technically the 200 seats contested by JD(U) and RJD could be considered as
seats of SP (in future)!
Sharad Yadav rushed to convince Mulayam Singh
whereas Lalu Yadav claimed that they would convince the SP chief. But Mulayam
didn't budge and decided to form an alliance with NCP and others to contest Bihar
elections independently.
Here it's to be noted that SP, NCP and others
have no relevance inBiharpolity
and I don't think that they can inflict any damage to JD(U)-RJD-Congress ally.
But the question remains, what's the real reason behind SP's withdrawal from
the Mahagathbandhan?
The answer lies not in Bihar polity.
It's in fact a case of national polity where SP is keen to dominate. It's a
contest between SP and Congress.
The 2014 general elections gave an unprecedented
mandate. BJP got majority by itself whereas NDA crossed te mark of 330 seats.
The Congress got its worst mandate of 44 seats and failed to qualify to get the
official position of leader of opposition (LoP). NDA allies though got some
success but couldn't get the leverage to blackmail BJP. Similarly regional
parties like AIDMK, TMC, BJD and TRS too got huge electoral success but were
not in situation to pressurize the BJP.
The above is true in the context to BJP. But
what was the message in the context of Congress party? The Congress neither
qualified for LoP, nor the other opposition parties like TMC, AIDMK, BJD and
TRS were interested to be led by the Congress. Then a series of assembly elections
followed where the Congress lost very badly. In Delhi assembly elections no
doubt AAP secured a historic win by limiting BJP to just 3 seats but the
Congress, which once ruled Delhi for
15 years, failed to open its account.
Clearly the Congress lost its status among the
opposition parties. And a vacuum of leadership surfaced among the non-BJP
parties. Veteran Mulayam Singh Yadav realised the vacuum and tried to take
centre stage in national opposition politics. SP got just five seats, but it's
ruling the largest state of India. Thus he started preparing a field to emerg
as the prime non-BJP leader with the help of a united Janata Parivar. The Modi
juggernaut in fact frightened all the Janata fractions. INLD already lost
Haryana, JD(S), JD(U) and RJD are also afraid about results in the upcoming
assembly polls. Thus Mulayam proposed the reunion of Janata Parivar to
represent a bigger block in national polity.
Karnataka, UP,Haryana were
never a problem for the merger of other Janata parties in SP because in these
states non-SP parties have no major stakes. The problem was in Bihar where
two tallest leaders Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav were struggling for survival.
Lalu tried for the Congress support but Rahul
preferred Nitish Kumar. For Nitish Kumar, though he commands popularity, but
doesn't enjoy a base like Lalu Yadav. Thus Mulayam Singh took tried to convince
both Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar to arrive at a solution. Because of Nitish's
popularity, he was made Chief Ministerial candidate whereas Lalu Yadav was
assured of greater say in the coalition.
But Nitish Kumar played differently. He knew
that Lalu Yadav may play intelligently to dominate him, so he inclined towards
the Congress. Rahul Gandhi demanded 40 seats, which was granted by Nitish Kumar
immediately. This in fact foiled the game plan of Mulayam Singh. On the other
hand the Congress wanted a dominant role in a state assembly where it lost its
foothold. Nitish provided this. From Nitish's point of view the 40 seats
granted to the Congress can be considered as JD(U) seats. That means while RJD
is contesting on 100 seats, JD(U) is practically contesting on 140 seats!
Clearly Lalu Yadav was stumped by this brilliant
politics. But Lalu has nothing to do at this moment. It's to be seen in future
how RJD supports in those 40 Congress seats. But the difference between RJD
chief and Rahul Gandhi is more visible, which should be a matter of concern for
Nitish Kumar.
Coming back to Mulayam Singh, he really was
disturbed over Nitish Kumar's trick of giving the Congress an entry. This was
an attack on Mulayam Singh's national ambition. He knew it very well that if
JDU-RJD-Congress alliance wins in Bihar, then this might also be viewed as
return of the Congress in national polity!
That's exactly the reason why SP withdrew from
the "Mahagathbandhan" and started criticising JD(U) in general and
Nitish Kumar in particular.
Politics is always a complex subject. Personally
I don't think that SP can do any damage to Nitish-led coalition. Bihar politics
may subject to some unprecedented complex inter-party rival politics in the
coming times. Don't forget such internal politics is also possible in NDA by
LJP and HAM.
Thus Bihar is entering into a complex political
situation but there should not be any doubt why SP divorced Janata Parivar.
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